With no Conservative MP, minority government a good thing, says professor

CORNER BROOK - The people of Newfoundland and Labrador have sent a message to Stephen Harper and the Conservative government and what's in store is reason for concern, according to a local political science instructor.

Eric Mintz, who teaches at Sir Wilfred Grenfell College, said it is no doubt Premier Danny Williams and the ABC campaign led to the worst-ever showing for Conservatives in this province. While he believes the successful candidates are "pretty good people", he said the large margins of victories and the surge of the NDP were proof. He believes the seven seats would have been divided four Liberal and three Conservative without the campaign.

He noted the campaign didn't increase voters interest in general, with preliminary figures showing only 48.1 per cent of voters out to the polls.

Lucky for the province, according to the instructor, a minority government was formed.

"I guess it is in one way fortunate that it is a minority government, because minority government does have to bargain with the other parties," Mintz told The Western Star Wednesday. "Perhaps some of the successful MPs from this province can try and persuade the prime minister and cabinet to take actions that are favourable to the province. Keeping that in mind, I think it is unfortunate the province presumably won't have representation in the cabinet."

Harper indicated he would not choose anybody from the Senate for his cabinet, although promises have been broken before, Mintz said. If the prime minister were to change his mind, the instructor said there are two options - Ethel Cochrane, the existing Conservative senator, or putting somebody into the vacant senate position, he suggested Fabian Manning as an option, and make that person a cabinet minister. He also said naming another Atlantic Canadian Conservative responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador is an alternative.

"Obviously Danny Williams as premier will be making Newfoundland's case every possible moment, but given the animosity between him and Harper that could be a problem," Mintz said. "I guess the hope is that all the parties in the House of Commons would try to make this minority government work and, to do that, our members of parliament - Liberal or NDP - would try to persuade Conservatives on various issues that concern the province."

Meanwhile, more seats won by the Conservatives and NDP has created a unique turn of events moving forward. Now, the Conservatives only need the support of one of the opposing parties to pass legislation. Mintz expects much behind the scenes negotiations to make that happen and to avoid another election at least for the next couple of years.

He said an interesting perspective on the ABC campaign is the debate between the premier and prime minister may prove mute if the price of oil remains down. He said the discussions of equalization, the cap, offset payments, and the billions of dollars lost becomes less relevant.

In fact, he said the province, and the country as a whole, may be looking at difficult times ahead if a recession occurs. Again the provincial/federal relationship will be important.

"There's a lot of patching up if that is indeed the case," he said.