ST. JOHN'S, N.L. — The numbers are holding steady for Premier Dwight Ball ahead of the provincial election, but it’s shaping up to be a tight race.
From the November 2018 Corporate Research Associates poll to the February 2019 poll released on Wednesday, things are pretty well the same. But when taken year over year, major changes appear.
The February 2019 poll shows 45 per cent of those polled would vote for the Liberals in the coming election — down one point from the November 2018 poll, but up by four points from the February 2018 poll.
The Progressive Conservatives also saw a three-point increase since November 2018, with 38 per cent support in the most recent poll. Year-over-year, support for the PCs has grown by five per cent.
For the New Democratic Party, support remains more or less steady in the most recent poll, with 16 per cent of respondents saying they’d vote NDP. That’s down one point from November 2018, but down eight points year-over-year. The February poll does not consider newly minted NDP leader Alison Coffin in its polling questions.
On who is the preferred leader, Premier Dwight Ball’s preference among voters keeps growing. The February 2019 poll shows 38 per cent preference among those polled, up by six points since November and ten points from February 2018.
PC leader Ches Crosbie saw his personal preference hit 31 per cent, up one point from November. In February 2018, Paul Davis was still leader of the PC Party, with 27 per cent of those polled supporting Davis at the time.
Outgoing NDP leader Gerry Rogers announced her resignation in the middle of the polling period for CRA, which could reflect a five-point drop in support from November to February, with 12 per cent preference for her as premier. That’s down from 23 per cent in February 2018, before Rogers won the NDP leadership race.
In terms of overall satisfaction with government, it’s a sharp divide. Of those polled, 47 per cent are satisfied with government, while 46 per cent disapprove. Year-over-year, the difference is dramatic. In February 2018, the CRA reported 35 per cent of respondents are satisfied with government, while 61 per cent disapproved.
The CRA poll was conducted from January 31 to February 24, 2019 based on a sample of 800 voting age residents of Newfoundland and Labrador. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Twitter: @DavidMaherNL
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