The sunny days continue in Quebec for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
With the federal election four months away, a new poll shows Quebecers have the most confidence in Trudeau. And his Liberals are the top choice for voters in the province that helped him win a majority in 2015.
However, the Conservatives lead in some parts of the province, and the Green Party is gaining ground at a time when the environment is top of mind for Quebecers.
Thirty-two per cent of 1,471 Quebecers surveyed last week said they would vote Liberal if a vote were held now, with 25 per cent opting for the Conservatives and 18 per cent for the Bloc Québécois.
The Green Party and New Democratic Party trailed at 10 per cent and nine per cent, respectively.
The nascent People’s Party of Canada barely made a blip, garnering four per cent.
The poll “bodes well for a Liberal Party that needs a strong showing in Quebec for any hope at re-election,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.
Trudeau’s strongest showing was in Montreal, a traditional Liberal bastion.
But Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives lead in Quebec City and the north shore. In other parts of Quebec, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by three percentage points, which is within the poll’s margin of error.
There is a gender disparity as well. Among women, the Liberals were on top — 39 per cent versus 19 per cent for the Conservatives. Among men, the Conservatives were favoured — 32 per cent versus 25 per cent.
Quebec was instrumental in Trudeau’s victory in the October 2015 election.
The Liberals’ success exceeded expectations, with the party nabbing 40 of 78 seats in the province. Trudeau captured 36 per cent of the popular vote in Quebec, the NDP 25 per cent, the Bloc 19 per cent, the Conservatives 17 per cent, and the Greens three per cent.
The new poll shows support for the Liberals has dropped slightly, while the Conservatives and Greens have gained. The NDP is in free fall, while the Bloc has held steady.
Forum also asked respondents which party leader they have most confidence in.
Trudeau came out on top, with 26 per cent. Scheer was second at 19 per cent, and Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet rounded out the top three at 11 per cent.
The other party leaders — Elizabeth May of the Greens, Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party and the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh — registered less than eight per cent each.
Anglophone Quebecers overwhelmingly backed Trudeau and his Liberals, according to the poll.
Fifty-four per cent of English-speaking respondents said they would vote Liberal, compared to 20 per cent for the Conservatives. No other party obtained more than eight per cent.
When asked which leader they have the most confidence in, 46 per cent of anglophones said Trudeau. Tied in second place, at 11 per cent, were Scheer and May.
What issues should federal parties focus on?
The environment was the top answer for 34 per cent of the Quebecers surveyed, followed by the economy (20 per cent) and health (19 per cent).
Women, Montrealers and voters 34 and younger were the most likely to say the environment should be the priority.
“The environment is clearly on the minds of Quebec … so the other parties can’t let the Liberals dominate this issue,” said Bozinoff.
Canadian voters are scheduled to go to the polls on Oct. 19.
Forum’s interactive voice response telephone survey was conducted June 11-12 . Results based on the total sample are considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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