ST. JOHN'S, N.L. — All eyes will be on the St. John’s metro area on Oct. 21 as the first gauge of how Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will fare in the 43rd federal election.
St. John’s East is the biggest battleground in Newfoundland and Labrador in the coming election.
Liberal incumbent Nick Whalen won the district by just over 600 votes in 2015, ending a two-year run as member of Parliament for the riding by New Democratic Party candidate Jack Harris.
Harris opted to run again for the seat, and polls suggest the race couldn’t be any closer as election day approaches.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh hasn’t visited Newfoundland and Labrador since the writ dropped on Sept. 11, but did some early campaigning with Harris the week before. At the time, Harris was the only confirmed candidate for the NDP in the province, a sign of the priority placed on the riding by the NDP.
Meanwhile, Whalen is not giving up the seat easily. Whalen was the first of the St. John’s East candidates to get a visit from their party leader, as Trudeau made his only appearance in the province in St. John’s East in mid-September.
A picture posted by the Whalen campaign on Tuesday gives an idea of the investment the Liberals are placing on the riding. Not only was Whalen’s own campaign on hand for a large door-knocking blitz, but St. John’s South-Mount Pearl candidate Seamus O’Regan, Avalon candidate Ken Macdonald, and Long Range Mountains candidate Gudie Hutchings were all on hand to lend their support to Whalen’s campaign.
Conservative Party of Canada candidate Joedy Wall, the mayor of Pouch Cove, could sway the election, depending on how voters react.
In 2015, the Conservatives took 6.5 per cent of the vote in St. John’s East with candidate Deanne Stapleton, who went on to become a councillor in St. John’s.
Wall got a brief visit from Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer on Sept. 23 to rally support for the campaign.
But the question for the Wall campaign will be whether he takes votes away from the Liberals or from the NDP — which could ultimately decide the riding.
St. John’s East is a notoriously fickle riding to begin with and has changed hands in three of the last four federal elections. St. John’s East was the last riding to decide a winner in 2015, and it’s safe to say it will be another long night in the riding on Oct. 21.
St. John's South-Mount Pearl
Seamus O’Regan’s bid for re-election in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl appears to be a safer bet than Whalen’s.
O’Regan’s primary competition is once again the NDP challenger in Anne Marie Anonsen.
The riding was another gain for the Liberals in 2015, after NDP incumbent Ryan Cleary lost the seat by almost 10,000 votes to O’Regan.
According to 338canada.com, the riding is leaning Liberal, with O’Regan projected to take 40 per cent of the vote to Anonsen’s 31 per cent.
In a similar vein to St. John’s East, it’s the Conservatives who will have an interesting role to play in the final vote count.
Conservative Terry Martin is a new face on the political stage in this province, and the same poll tracker suggests as much as 20 per cent of the vote in the riding could go blue. In 2015, the Conservatives took just 4.5 per cent of the vote in the riding.
So, while there’s more daylight between the candidates in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl than in St. John’s East, the Conservatives could be a big factor in deciding who will be the MP.
But, all that said, the riding is another that has changed hands plenty in recent years. From the 2006 election to the 2015 election, four different MPs from three different parties have held the seat.
If the Liberals find defeat in St. John’s East, it could be chalked up to two good campaigns well fought. If the Liberals find another defeat in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, it could end up being a very long night for Justin Trudeau.
