The federal Liberals and Conservatives are in a statistical tie in Atlantic Canada, while support for the Green party grows, according to the results of a new poll.
The results, based on Narrative Research’s quarterly survey of 1,500 adult Atlantic Canadians, shows Liberal support among decided and leaning voters on the decline across the region for the second consecutive quarter. Support for the governing Liberals is now sitting at 39 per cent compared to 49 per cent a year ago and 47 per cent in February, while the federal Tories now enjoy 36 per cent, compared to 29 per cent in May of 2018 and 35 per cent last quarter.
And for the first time ever, the federal Green Party has surpassed the New Democratic Party in decided support in the Atlantic region, with support more than doubling over the past three months. Fourteen per cent of decided and leaning voters in Atlantic Canada say they would vote Green if an election were held today (up from five per cent in May 2018 and six per cent in February), compared to nine per cent who said they would vote for the NDP (down from 15 and 11 per cent).
The rise is perhaps unsurprising given the party’s surge of popularity at a provincial level in both New Brunswick and P.E.I.
“The federal NDP is struggling to maintain its position as the third party of choice in Atlantic Canada, and findings suggest they could be replaced by the Greens as the main alternative to the Liberals or Conservatives,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research in a press release.
NOVA SCOTIA
- Liberal: 42 per cent
- Conservative: 27 per cent
- NDP: 13 per cent
- Green: 15 per cent
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
- Liberal: 32 per cent
- Conservative: 42 per cent
- NDP: 4 per cent
- Green: 22 per cent
NEW BRUNSWICK
- Liberal: 31 per cent
- Conservative: 41 per cent
- NDP: 6 per cent
- Green: 19 per cent
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
- Liberal: 45 per cent
- Conservative: 42 per cent
- NDP: 7 per cent
- Green: 4 per cent
Broken down by province, the Liberals maintained their lead in Nova Scotia with 42 per cent support compared to 27 per cent support for the Conservatives and are in a statistical tie with the Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador (45 per cent support for the Liberals and 42 for the Tories). However, the Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals and hold a 10-point lead in both New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.
Support for the Green party also varies by province, ranging from four per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador to 22 per cent in P.E.I., as does NDP support, which was highest in Nova Scotia at 13 per cent and lowest in P.E.I. at four per cent.
About one-third of Atlantic Canadians were undecided or wouldn’t say which party they plan to vote for.
Leader preference
When it comes to leader preference, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was the preferred choice of 30 per cent of Atlantic Canadians (down from 40 per cent in May 2018 and 35 per cent in February), while 26 per cent preferred Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer (compared to 22 per cent and 26 per cent). Fifteen per cent of respondents said they preferred Green Leader Elizabeth May, (up from eight per cent and nine per cent) and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was the top choice of 9 per cent (compared to 10 per cent and 6 per cent).
“Justin Trudeau’s leadership ratings continue to fall, and while Andrew Scheer has captured some of that support, his ratings appear to have stalled for now,” said Brigley. “It will be interesting to see if he and the Conservatives can build any additional momentum in this region, going into the election.”
These results are part of an independent quarterly survey of 1,500 adult Atlantic Canadians by Narrative Research (formerly CRA) conducted from May 6 to 24, 2019, with overall results accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.
