The stark regional divisions across Canada were brought into sharp contrast by the colour-coded electoral maps Canadians viewed on screens, large and small, Monday night and into Tuesday morning.
Atlantic Canadians remain almost as loyal to the federal Liberal brand as westerners are repelled by it. Quebeckers reasserted their distinct place in the federation. In Ontario the division is mostly rural-urban and British Columbia is Conservative to the coast, where the so-called progressive parties take over.
But the most dangerous division is between the west – Alberta and Saskatchewan – and the rest.
How, and if, a re-elected Liberal government, reduced to a minority without a single seat from those deeply alienated resource-rich provinces, can bridge the divide is a question that will seize the nation and the Parliament in the days, weeks and months ahead.
The patchwork quilt voters stitched Monday also reflects another undeniable Canadian political reality. Outside of Quebec and the Bloc, Canadian politicians and political parties are chronically underperforming.
The election was only close to begin with because the Liberal government in general, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in particular, disappointed so many Canadians who four years ago invested high hopes in promises of sunny ways, a new kind of politics, a more equitable democracy and real action on climate change. Trudeau and his 2015 Liberals, perhaps because they were coming from third place, over-promised and underperformed.
But the Liberals have lots of company.
The NDP grabbed the momentum in the middle of the campaign, propelled by the new-found popularity of their leader, Jagmeet Singh. On election night, the NDP underperformed. The late surge in the polls didn’t translate into seats.
While his campaign performance almost certainly secured his job through the next election, Singh is at risk of becoming just the latest in a long line of federal NDP leaders whose personal popularity exceeds that of their party.
Elizabeth May and the Greens went into the campaign with two seats in Parliament and, seemingly, nowhere to go but up. Buoyed by promising results in provincial elections, rising poll numbers and increased anxiety over climate change, this was to be the Green breakthrough election.
And yet, once the campaign began the party had trouble finding its footing and some confusion about exactly where it stood on certain issues seemed to arrest any momentum it had.
In the end, the Greens underperformed rather spectacularly. Falling from double digits in early polls, the Greens garnered just 6.5 per cent of the vote on election day. Granted that’s almost double the share the party earned four years ago, but measured against expectations that showing, along with the gain of just one seat – Fredericton – is a disappointment.
And then there’s the Conservatives. Their leader, Andrew Scheer, underperformed throughout the campaign. Don’t take my word for it. The nation’s pollsters are nearly unanimous in their verdict that Scheer fell from favour with Canadians over the 40 days of politicking. His unsubstantiated claim that a Liberal-NDP coalition was going to hike the GST seemed to halt and reverse what little momentum the Conservatives were building going into campaign’s last weekend.
Even more than Scheer, the Conservatives’ vote under-performed dramatically. The party earned the most votes – almost a quarter of a million more than the Liberals – and yet elected 36 fewer MPs than the Grits.
Scheer’s future as Conservative leader is likely secure because the Liberal minority makes an election possible – although unlikely – almost anytime. Scheer also led the Conservatives to their highest vote total in history, 6.15 million. This election was his first as leader, and despite a disappointing seat count, he’s earned a second chance.
By contrast the Liberal’s 5.9 million votes were efficient in producing 157 seats which, as minorities go, is pretty stable. The Liberals can move their agenda forward with the support of either the NDP or the Bloc, as circumstances dictate.
But moving from a solid majority to a minority forces a change in style from the prime minister, who must be more conciliatory, and in substance to retain the confidence of the Commons, while attempting to heal divisions with the west. That balancing act is complicated by the anti-pipeline postures of the parties Trudeau needs to prop up his minority.
More than anyone in his audience, Trudeau himself needs to heed the words he spoke in victory Tuesday morning.
"Liberals know, like all Canadians know, that it is always possible to do better," he said. If he has designs on surviving a minority and winning a third term, Trudeau will have to do better as prime minister than he has thus far.
