Three Tory seats in the Nova Scotia legislature will be up for grabs in byelections, and a fourth seat — that of former NDP MLA Lenore Zann — could soon be vacant, too.
If Premier Stephen McNeil is good to his word, Nova Scotians in the Tory-held ridings shouldn’t have to wait long for byelections. Last month, the premier said he’d call those byelections as soon as the incumbents resigned. The three departing Tories’ resignations are effective July 31.
Gone from the provincial Progressive Conservative caucus are longtime stalwarts Chris d’Entremont (Barrington-Argyle); Alfie MacLeod (Sydney-River-Myra-Louisbourg), and Eddie Orrell (Northside-Westmount).
The three long-serving MLAs have all been nominated to run for the federal Conservatives in this fall’s election. Orrell will run in Sydney-Victoria; MacLeod in Cape Breton-Canso; and d’Entremont in West Nova.
The Truro-Bible Hill riding that Zann has held since 2013 will become vacant if she is successful in her bid to win the federal Liberal nomination in Cumberland-Colchester. That nomination will be decided next Saturday.
Truro lawyer Joel Henderson and Jim Hardiman, also a Truro resident and a 30-year Armed Forces veteran, are contesting that nomination as well.
Zann resigned from the NDP provincial caucus and became an independent MLA prior to launching her bid for the federal Liberal nomination. She will have to resign her seat in the legislature if she gains the nomination, making a fourth provincial byelection possible.
The premier has been critical of the MLAs for hanging on to their seats in the legislature while they pursued federal nominations. Once officially nominated to run federally, MLAs must resign their provincial seats.
McNeil believes MLAs should resign from the legislature when they decide to seek a federal nomination and has suggested provincial legislation may be forthcoming to make it so.
For the provincial Tories, the loss of d’Entremont, MacLeod and Orrell is bittersweet. All three are popular, effective members of the party’s legislative caucus.
But the departure of long-serving members for federal politics provides the provincial party and leader Tim Houston with an opportunity to keep the electoral momentum heading in their direction. It is also a sign that the federal Conservatives will be more competitive in Nova Scotia this time around.
The provincial PCs won a close race against the NDP in a byelection last month in Sackville-Cobequid, a seat the New Democrats had held since 1984. Former Halifax regional councillor Steve Craig won the riding for the Tories.
While the Tories would be expected to hold the three seats their members vacated, if they are able to accomplish that, the perception that the party is headed for a win in the next provincial election would be strengthened.
Of course, the flip side is that a Tory loss in one or more of those seats would be seen as a setback for the party and Houston.
If the Liberals were able to pick off one of those seats, it would give them a much-needed boost and renewed hope for a third successive provincial win.
If Zann takes the Cumberland-Colchester Liberal nomination, a byelection in Truro would be a fairly wide open affair. Zann is the only New Democrat ever to win the traditionally Tory Truro riding, and the PCs would welcome a chance to win it back with Zann out of the picture.
The loss of three MLAs to federal Conservative nominations is also an indication that the federal party’s fortunes have improved in Nova Scotia.
In 2015, all 11 of Nova Scotia’s federal ridings — and all 32 of Atlantic Canada’s — went Liberal. But, when prominent provincial MLAs leave their seats mid-term for a federal nomination, it tells you they believe they have a good chance to win.
The Liberal incumbent MPs, Mark Eyking and Roger Cuzner in the Cape Breton seats, and Colin Fraser in West Nova, are not reoffering. The Liberal nomination in Cumberland Colchester is open because MP Bill Casey is retiring, and former MP and Trudeau cabinet minister Scott Brison retired from federal politics late last year.
With five of the 11 Liberal MPs Nova Scotians sent to Ottawa in 2015 no longer on the ballot, those seats are seen as prime targets for the federal Conservatives, who hope to win at least four of them in October.
Whether the premier calls the byelections immediately, as he suggested last month, or waits until the dust settles from the federal vote, which seems more likely, it will be a very political fall in Nova Scotia.
